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A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue

The team have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What troubles everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."

Legal Framework

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.

Lack of Substantive Discussion

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, stated McBride.

"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in academia but very few elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two articles that strive for impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and social data, previous instances and constitutional models.

Debates cover identity markers, levies, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and provoke discussion.

"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.

"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.

Likelihood of Public Vote

McBride thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has has something to acquire from the alternative arguments."

Call for Broader Debate

Westminster must participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."